Osnabrück U19 0–1 Hallescher FC U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hallescher FC U19

T. Koch 90+3' (pen)

10/31/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Osnabrück U1945%

×Draw22%

Hallescher FC U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.59

Osnabrück U19

1.90

Hallescher FC U19

1.59

Osnabrück U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

1.29

creates per match

1.24

1.95

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

67%

Osnabrück U19 or Hallescher FC U19

78%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

55%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

25%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

85%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

56%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

29%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

80%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

47%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

33%

Osnabrück U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. Winkel← F. Ballmann

62'

M. Linse← A. Rühlemann

76'

L. Vujanic← E. Ndukwe Oke

80'

S. Yüksekdag← J. Chorushij

83'

A. Sothen← M. Hennig

90+1'

Y. Karademir← L. Ricker Rasteiro

90+3'

T. KochPenalty

Osnabrück

Hallescher

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Fetz

62'▲M. Winkel←▼F. Ballmann

80'▲S. Yüksekdag←▼J. Chorushij

90+1'▲Y. Karademir←▼L. Ricker Rasteiro

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

WinkelYüksekdagKarademirBastwösteGornyLeueBerling

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

62'▲M. Linse←▼A. Rühlemann

76'▲L. Vujanic←▼E. Ndukwe Oke

83'▲A. Sothen←▼M. Hennig

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

LinseVujanicSothenKambambaSungurHaenschBergmann

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Hallescher FC U19

Hallescher FC U19 beat Osnabrück U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 31, 2021.

Goals: T. Koch (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Hallescher FC U19