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Osnabrück U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
CANC
10:00
Eimsbütteler TV U19
Eimsbütteler TV U19
11/1/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 5Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Osnabrück U1944%
×Draw23%
Eimsbütteler TV U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.74
Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.48

Osnabrück U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 11 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.00

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Eimsbütteler TV U19
2.18

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
67%
Osnabrück U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19
77%
Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19
56%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
23%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
82%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
52%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
25%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals
77%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals
43%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more
33%

Osnabrück U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Osnabrück U19 host Eimsbütteler TV U19

November 1, 2020: Osnabrück U19 take on Eimsbütteler TV U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Osnabrück U19 host Eimsbütteler TV U19 at Sportpark Illoshöhe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.