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Osnabrück U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Darmstadt 98 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
3/8/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Osnabrück U1939%
×Draw22%
Darmstadt 98 U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.77
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Darmstadt 98 U19
1.56

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Darmstadt 98 U19
2.25

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
62%
Osnabrück U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19
78%
Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19
61%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
20%
Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
83%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
53%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
26%
Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals
83%
Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals
52%
Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more
38%

Osnabrück U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Osnabrück
Darmstadt
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg
P. Kurt
Manager: P. Kurt

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Osnabrück U19 and Darmstadt 98 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 8, 2026.