Osmanlispor 1–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Osmanlispor

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

9/24/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundOsmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Osmanlispor78%

×Draw13%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchYeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

0.96

Osmanlispor

3.04

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

0.96

Osmanlispor creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

0.67

1.25

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Osmanlispor

2.75

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

0.67

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.25

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

91%

Osmanlispor or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

87%

Draw or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

22%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

59%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

95%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

80%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

57%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1+ goals

62%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2+ goals

25%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

90%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 2.75 + Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.04

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu attack 0.67 + Osmanlispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

78%

level

13%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu scores more

9%

Osmanlispor at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff