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Osmanlispor vs Keçiörengücü — 1. Lig 2018

Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
1/25/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 19Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Osmanlispor37%
×Draw27%
Keçiörengücü37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osmanlispor
1.27
Keçiörengücü
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 125 away

creates per match

Osmanlispor
1.29
Keçiörengücü
1.19

allows per match

Osmanlispor
1.35
Keçiörengücü
1.25

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par
Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Keçiörengücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw
63%
Osmanlispor or Keçiörengücü
73%
Draw or Keçiörengücü
63%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+
16%
Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals
72%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
36%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
14%
Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
72%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
36%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
50%
Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Keçiörengücü away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Keçiörengücü attack 1.19 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Osmanlispor scores more
37%
level
27%
Keçiörengücü scores more
37%

Osmanlispor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Osmanlispor 0–0 Keçiörengücü

Osmanlispor and Keçiörengücü drew 0-0 in 1. Lig on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.