Osmanlispor 3–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

Osmanlispor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kardemir Karabukspor

2/17/2019

1. Lig · Round 22Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osmanlispor77%

×Draw14%

Kardemir Karabukspor8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchKardemir Karabukspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.77

Osmanlispor

2.67

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.77

Osmanlispor creates 247% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

0.18

1.35

allows per match

4.06

creates per match

Osmanlispor

1.29

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.18

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.35

Kardemir Karabukspor

4.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

92%

Osmanlispor or Kardemir Karabukspor

86%

Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor

23%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

56%

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

93%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

74%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

49%

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals

54%

Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals

18%

Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

90%

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.67

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

77%

level

14%

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more

8%

Osmanlispor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff