Osmanlispor 0–1 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Osmanlispor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gaziantep FK

3/2/2019

1. Lig · Round 24Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osmanlispor25%

×Draw24%

Gaziantep FK51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.68

Osmanlispor

1.11

Gaziantep FK

1.68

Gaziantep FK creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

2.00

1.35

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Osmanlispor

1.29

Gaziantep FK

2.00

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.35

Gaziantep FK

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

49%

Osmanlispor or Gaziantep FK

76%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

75%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

10%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

67%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

30%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

10%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

81%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

50%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

33%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

25%

level

24%

Gaziantep FK scores more

51%

Gaziantep FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff