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Osmanlispor vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
2/29/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 25Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Osmanlispor33%
×Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osmanlispor
1.19
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

Fatih Karagümrük creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Osmanlispor
1.29
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Osmanlispor
1.35
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw
60%
Osmanlispor or Fatih Karagümrük
73%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
67%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+
14%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals
70%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
33%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
12%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
74%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
39%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
45%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osmanlispor scores more
33%
level
27%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
40%

Fatih Karagümrük at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Osmanlispor 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük

Osmanlispor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.