Osmanlispor 2–1 Akhisarspor: Result & Stats

Osmanlispor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Akhisarspor

10/28/2019

1. Lig · Round 9Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Osmanlispor44%

×Draw25%

Akhisarspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchAkhisarspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

Osmanlispor

1.56

Akhisarspor

1.25

Osmanlispor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.35

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Osmanlispor

1.29

Akhisarspor

1.14

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.35

Akhisarspor

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Akhisarspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

69%

Osmanlispor or Akhisarspor

75%

Draw or Akhisarspor

56%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

22%

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

79%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

46%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

21%

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

71%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

36%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

59%

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Akhisarspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Akhisarspor attack 1.14 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

44%

level

25%

Akhisarspor scores more

31%

Osmanlispor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff