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Oslo vs Ouakam — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ouakam
Ouakam
5/17/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo27%
×Draw33%
Ouakam40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
0.75
Ouakam
0.98

Ouakam creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
Ouakam
0.49

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
Ouakam
0.63

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
Ouakam+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Ouakam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
60%
Oslo or Ouakam
67%
Draw or Ouakam
73%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
8%
Ouakam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
53%
Oslo 2+ goals
17%
Oslo 3+ goals
4%
Ouakam 1+ goals
62%
Ouakam 2+ goals
26%
Ouakam 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
40%
Ouakam (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Ouakam away — creates 0.49, concedes 0.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Ouakam defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.75

Ouakam attack 0.49 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oslo scores more
27%
level
33%
Ouakam scores more
40%

Ouakam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ouakam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oslo 0 – 2 Ouakam

Ouakam beat Oslo 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies in Dakar.