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Oslo vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
1 – 4
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
11/21/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Municipal de Yoff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo24%
×Draw30%
Jaraaf46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
0.77
Jaraaf
1.21

Jaraaf creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
54%
Oslo or Jaraaf
70%
Draw or Jaraaf
76%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
7%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
54%
Oslo 2+ goals
18%
Oslo 3+ goals
4%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
70%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
34%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
34%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oslo scores more
24%
level
30%
Jaraaf scores more
46%

Jaraaf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oslo 1 – 4 Jaraaf

Jaraaf beat Oslo 4-1 in Ligue 1 on November 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yoff in Dakar.