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Oslo vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
11/2/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo33%
×Draw29%
Jamono Fatick38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
1.04
Jamono Fatick
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
62%
Oslo or Jamono Fatick
71%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
67%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
13%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
65%
Oslo 2+ goals
28%
Oslo 3+ goals
9%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
68%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
31%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
47%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oslo scores more
33%
level
29%
Jamono Fatick scores more
38%

Jamono Fatick at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jamono Fatick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Oslo 1–0 Jamono Fatick

Oslo beat Jamono Fatick 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies in Dakar.