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Oslo vs Guédiawaye — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guédiawaye
Guédiawaye
5/10/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Municipal Patte d'Oie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo27%
×Draw29%
Guédiawaye44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
0.89
Guédiawaye
1.24

Guédiawaye creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
Guédiawaye
1.01

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
Guédiawaye
0.91

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Guédiawaye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
56%
Oslo or Guédiawaye
71%
Draw or Guédiawaye
73%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
9%
Guédiawaye wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
59%
Oslo 2+ goals
22%
Oslo 3+ goals
6%
Guédiawaye 1+ goals
71%
Guédiawaye 2+ goals
35%
Guédiawaye 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
37%
Guédiawaye (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Guédiawaye away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Guédiawaye defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Guédiawaye attack 1.01 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oslo scores more
27%
level
29%
Guédiawaye scores more
44%

Guédiawaye at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guédiawaye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oslo vs Guédiawaye

Guédiawaye beat Oslo 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Patte d'Oie in Dakar.