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Oslo vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
12/7/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo30%
×Draw30%
Casa Sport40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
0.93
Casa Sport
1.14

Casa Sport creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
60%
Oslo or Casa Sport
70%
Draw or Casa Sport
70%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
10%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
61%
Oslo 2+ goals
24%
Oslo 3+ goals
7%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
68%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
32%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
42%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oslo scores more
30%
level
30%
Casa Sport scores more
40%

Casa Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Casa Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oslo vs Casa Sport

Casa Sport beat Oslo 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies in Dakar.