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Oslo vs AJEL — Ligue 1 2019

Oslo
Oslo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AJEL
AJEL
6/29/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo28%
×Draw30%
AJEL42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oslo
0.90
AJEL
1.17

AJEL creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Oslo
0.87
AJEL
0.86

allows per match

Oslo
1.47
AJEL
0.93

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par
AJEL+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

AJEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Oslo or draw
58%
Oslo or AJEL
70%
Draw or AJEL
72%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+
10%
AJEL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals
59%
Oslo 2+ goals
23%
Oslo 3+ goals
6%
AJEL 1+ goals
69%
AJEL 2+ goals
33%
AJEL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)
40%
AJEL (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

AJEL away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + AJEL defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

AJEL attack 0.86 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oslo scores more
28%
level
30%
AJEL scores more
42%

AJEL at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AJEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oslo vs AJEL

Oslo beat AJEL 3-2 in Ligue 1 on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies in Dakar.