Oskarshamns AIK 0–0 Varbergs BoIS FC

Oskarshamns AIK

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varbergs BoIS FC

9/30/2020

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundArena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK22%

×Draw22%

Varbergs BoIS FC56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.94

Oskarshamns AIK

1.15

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.94

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.76

2.13

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.13

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.76

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

2.13

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

44%

Oskarshamns AIK or Varbergs BoIS FC

78%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

78%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

9%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

68%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

32%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

11%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

86%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

58%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

29%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.13 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

22%

level

22%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

56%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff