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Oskarshamns AIK vs Orebro SK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Oskarshamns AIK
Oskarshamns AIK
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
2/22/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arena Oskarshamns AIK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK21%
×Draw22%
Orebro SK57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oskarshamns AIK
1.14
Orebro SK
1.99

Orebro SK creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK
1.13
Orebro SK
1.85

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK
2.13
Orebro SK
1.15

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw
43%
Oskarshamns AIK or Orebro SK
78%
Draw or Orebro SK
79%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+
8%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals
68%
Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals
32%
Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals
11%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
86%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
59%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)
27%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.13 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more
21%
level
22%
Orebro SK scores more
57%

Orebro SK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Oskarshamns AIK 1–4 Orebro SK

Orebro SK beat Oskarshamns AIK 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Oskarshamns AIK in Oskarshamn.