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Oskarshamns AIK vs Lilla Torg — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Oskarshamns AIK
Oskarshamns AIK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lilla Torg
Lilla Torg
N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby 83', 45'
3/28/2026Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 1Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK65%
×Draw19%
Lilla Torg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oskarshamns AIK
2.21
Lilla Torg
1.00

Oskarshamns AIK creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK
2.57
Lilla Torg
1.00

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK
1.00
Lilla Torg
1.86

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par
Lilla Torg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Lilla Torg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw
84%
Oskarshamns AIK or Lilla Torg
81%
Draw or Lilla Torg
35%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+
41%
Lilla Torg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals
89%
Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals
65%
Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals
38%
Lilla Torg 1+ goals
63%
Lilla Torg 2+ goals
26%
Lilla Torg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)
80%
Lilla Torg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Lilla Torg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 2.57 + Lilla Torg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lilla Torg attack 1.00 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more
65%
level
19%
Lilla Torg scores more
16%

Oskarshamns AIK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oskarshamns AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby
83'
N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oskarshamns AIK 2 – 0 Lilla Torg

Oskarshamns AIK beat Lilla Torg 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on March 28, 2026.

Goals: N. Ehrnborg Kallmeby (45', 83').

The match was played at Arena Oskarshamn in Oskarshamn.