Oskarshamns AIK 2–1 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Helsingborg

8/22/2019

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundArena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK26%

×Draw22%

Helsingborg52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.98

Oskarshamns AIK

1.36

Helsingborg

1.98

Helsingborg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.82

2.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.13

Helsingborg

1.82

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

2.13

Helsingborg

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

48%

Oskarshamns AIK or Helsingborg

78%

Draw or Helsingborg

74%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

11%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

74%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

39%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

16%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

86%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

59%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

34%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.13 + Helsingborg defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Helsingborg attack 1.82 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

26%

level

22%

Helsingborg scores more

52%

Helsingborg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff