Oskarshamns AIK 0–3 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hammarby FF

2/28/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK14%

×Draw17%

Hammarby FF69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.47

Oskarshamns AIK

1.00

Hammarby FF

2.47

Hammarby FF creates 147% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

2.82

2.13

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.13

Hammarby FF

2.82

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

2.13

Hammarby FF

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

31%

Oskarshamns AIK or Hammarby FF

83%

Draw or Hammarby FF

86%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

5%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

63%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

26%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

8%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

91%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

70%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

16%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.13 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

14%

level

17%

Hammarby FF scores more

69%

Hammarby FF at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff