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Oskarshamns AIK vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Oskarshamns AIK
Oskarshamns AIK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
2/20/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK14%
×Draw17%
AIK Stockholm70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oskarshamns AIK
1.09
AIK Stockholm
2.62

AIK Stockholm creates 140% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK
1.13
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK
2.13
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw
30%
Oskarshamns AIK or AIK Stockholm
83%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
86%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+
5%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals
66%
Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals
30%
Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals
10%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
93%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
73%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)
17%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.13 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more
14%
level
17%
AIK Stockholm scores more
70%

AIK Stockholm at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Oskarshamns AIK 1–2 AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Oskarshamns AIK 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Oskarshamn in Oskarshamn.