Oskarshamns AIK 5–1 Ahlafors: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ahlafors

6/17/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 13Arena Oskarshamns AIK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK62%

×Draw20%

Ahlafors18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchAhlafors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.09

Oskarshamns AIK

2.17

Ahlafors

1.09

Oskarshamns AIK creates 99% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

0.67

1.52

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.68

Ahlafors

0.67

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.52

Ahlafors

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Ahlafors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Ahlafors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

82%

Oskarshamns AIK or Ahlafors

80%

Draw or Ahlafors

38%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

39%

Ahlafors wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

89%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

64%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

36%

Ahlafors 1+ goals

66%

Ahlafors 2+ goals

30%

Ahlafors 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

77%

Ahlafors (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Ahlafors away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.68 + Ahlafors defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ahlafors attack 0.67 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

62%

level

20%

Ahlafors scores more

18%

Oskarshamns AIK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oskarshamns AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff