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Osipovichy vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe — 1. Division 2018

Osipovichy
Osipovichy
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
7/8/20231. Division1. Division · Round 15Stadyen Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osipovichy21%
×Draw20%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osipovichy
1.23
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
2.21

Zhodino Yuzhnoe creates 80% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 16 away

creates per match

Osipovichy
0.77
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94

allows per match

Osipovichy
2.47
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.69

finishing

Osipovichy+0.00on par
Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osipovichy ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Osipovichy or draw
41%
Osipovichy or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
80%
Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe
79%

Winning margin

Osipovichy wins by 2+
8%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Osipovichy 1+ goals
71%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
35%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
13%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals
89%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals
65%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Osipovichy (draw refunded)
26%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osipovichy at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.47 · 53 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osipovichy attack 0.77 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Osipovichy defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Osipovichy scores more
21%
level
20%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more
59%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zhodino Yuzhnoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osipovichy vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe

Zhodino Yuzhnoe beat Osipovichy 3-2 in 1. Division on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Osipovichy.