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Osipovichy vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — 1. Division 2018

Osipovichy
Osipovichy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
8/9/20251. Division1. Division · Round 19Yunost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Osipovichy16%
×Draw20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osipovichy
0.96
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.15

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 124% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 49 away

creates per match

Osipovichy
0.77
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.82

allows per match

Osipovichy
2.47
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.16

finishing

Osipovichy+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osipovichy ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Osipovichy or draw
36%
Osipovichy or FC Dnepr Mogilev
80%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
84%

Winning margin

Osipovichy wins by 2+
5%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Osipovichy 1+ goals
62%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
25%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
7%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
88%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
63%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Osipovichy (draw refunded)
20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osipovichy at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.47 · 53 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osipovichy attack 0.77 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.96

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.82 + Osipovichy defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Osipovichy scores more
16%
level
20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
64%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Osipovichy 0–2 FC Dnepr Mogilev

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat Osipovichy 2-0 in 1. Division on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Yunost Stadium in Osipovichi.