Osipovichy 2–1 ABFF U19: Result & Stats

Osipovichy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ABFF U19

M. Kunskiy 56'

K. Goncarik 36'

I. Gubarevich 26'

9/13/2025

1. Division · Round 24Yunost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osipovichy23%

×Draw23%

ABFF U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsipovichyExpected goals in this matchABFF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.85

Osipovichy

1.13

ABFF U19

1.85

ABFF U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

0.78

creates per match

1.24

2.46

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Osipovichy

0.78

ABFF U19

1.24

allows per match

Osipovichy

2.46

ABFF U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osipovichy+0.00on par

ABFF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osipovichy ↓

ABFF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Osipovichy or draw

46%

Osipovichy or ABFF U19

77%

Draw or ABFF U19

77%

Winning margin

Osipovichy wins by 2+

9%

ABFF U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Osipovichy 1+ goals

68%

Osipovichy 2+ goals

31%

Osipovichy 3+ goals

11%

ABFF U19 1+ goals

84%

ABFF U19 2+ goals

55%

ABFF U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Osipovichy (draw refunded)

30%

ABFF U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osipovichy at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.46 · 54 matches

ABFF U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osipovichy attack 0.78 + ABFF U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

ABFF U19 attack 1.24 + Osipovichy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Osipovichy scores more

23%

level

23%

ABFF U19 scores more

54%

ABFF U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ABFF U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Lomako

26'

I. Gubarevich↳ S. Zhivushko

36'

K. Goncarik

44'

A. Perepechko

53'

A. Grin← E. Elezarenko

56'

M. Kunskiy

59'

N. Kolesnikovich← M. Autko

59'

D. Chergeyko← T. Tkachev

59'

V. Skomarovskiy← I. Verenich

69'

A. Zverev← K. Goncarik

73'

V. Nalivayko← S. Zhivushko

77'

M. Azarov← N. Solomatin

77'

A. Platon← A. Yarmolich

81'

M. Montevka← I. Gubarevich

83'

M. Azarov

83'

A. Zverev

87'

M. Montevka

Osipovichy

ABFF

1

Matysyuk

2

Kazmerchu

3

▼

Autko

4

Stanul

5

Sakuta

7

▼

Tkachev

9

⚽

▼

Gubarevic

10

Derzhinsk

14

A

▼

Zhivushko

20

Gusev

21

▼

16

2

3

7

⚽

Kunskiy

8

▼

Solomatin

9

⚽

▼

Goncarik

11

Stain

21

▼

Elezarenk

25

Lomako

29

Korzhenev

31

▼

Yarmolich

Manager: A. Lyasyuk

53'▲A. Grin←▼E. Elezarenko

69'▲A. Zverev←▼K. Goncarik

77'▲M. Azarov←▼N. Solomatin

77'▲A. Platon←▼A. Yarmolich

Osipovichy substitutes

1Krivnyak33Volodkov6Azarov12Grin14Zverev15Malykh17Emeljanov18Emeljanov19Platon23Minkevich

Manager: S. Sosnovskiy

59'▲N. Kolesnikovich←▼M. Autko

59'▲D. Chergeyko←▼T. Tkachev

59'▲V. Skomarovskiy←▼I. Verenich

73'▲V. Nalivayko←▼S. Zhivushko

81'▲M. Montevka←▼I. Gubarevich

ABFF U19 substitutes

12Chuprinskiy6Kolesnikovich11Chergeyko13Mishin15Sheremet18Poluyanov22Nalivayko23Pulkach24Skomarovskiy25Montevka