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Osijek W vs Twente W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Osijek W
Osijek W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Twente W
Twente W
9/18/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundStadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Osijek W56%
×Draw20%
Twente W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osijek W
2.32
Twente W
1.46

Osijek W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Osijek W
2.20
Twente W
1.71

allows per match

Osijek W
1.20
Twente W
2.43

finishing

Osijek W+0.00on par
Twente W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osijek W ↓

Twente W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Osijek W or draw
76%
Osijek W or Twente W
80%
Draw or Twente W
44%

Winning margin

Osijek W wins by 2+
35%
Twente W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Osijek W 1+ goals
90%
Osijek W 2+ goals
67%
Osijek W 3+ goals
40%
Twente W 1+ goals
77%
Twente W 2+ goals
43%
Twente W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Osijek W (draw refunded)
70%
Twente W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osijek W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Twente W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osijek W attack 2.20 + Twente W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.32

Twente W attack 1.71 + Osijek W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Osijek W scores more
56%
level
20%
Twente W scores more
24%

Osijek W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Osijek W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Osijek W 1–4 Twente W

Twente W beat Osijek W 4-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.