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Istiqlol vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2015

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
1 – 0
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
5/29/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Istiqlol58%
×Draw25%
Regar-TadAZ18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.63
Regar-TadAZ
0.77

Istiqlol creates 112% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
2.14
Regar-TadAZ
1.11

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.43
Regar-TadAZ
1.11

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
82%
Istiqlol or Regar-TadAZ
75%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
42%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
32%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
80%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
48%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
22%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
54%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
18%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
77%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 21 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.14 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.11 + Istiqlol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Istiqlol scores more
58%
level
25%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
18%

Istiqlol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Regar-TadAZ

Istiqlol beat Regar-TadAZ 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 29, 2015.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.