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Khatlon vs Xayr — Vysshaya Liga 2013

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 1
Xayr
Xayr
4/13/2013Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khatlon39%
×Draw24%
Xayr36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.52
Xayr
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.70
Xayr
2.00

allows per match

Khatlon
0.89
Xayr
1.33

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Xayr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Xayr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
64%
Khatlon or Xayr
76%
Draw or Xayr
61%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
19%
Xayr wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
78%
Khatlon 2+ goals
45%
Khatlon 3+ goals
20%
Xayr 1+ goals
77%
Xayr 2+ goals
42%
Xayr 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
52%
Xayr (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Xayr away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.70 + Xayr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Xayr attack 2.00 + Khatlon defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khatlon scores more
39%
level
24%
Xayr scores more
36%

Khatlon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khatlon 1 – 1 Xayr

Khatlon and Xayr drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 13, 2013.

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.