Osasuna 1–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Osasuna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mallorca

Aimar Oroz 47'

1/14/2023

La Liga · Round 17Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Osasuna49%

×Draw26%

Mallorca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsasunaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.03

Osasuna

1.53

Mallorca

1.03

Osasuna creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

1.32

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Osasuna

1.32

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Osasuna

1.12

Mallorca

1.74

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Osasuna+0.28scores more

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Osasuna or draw

74%

Osasuna or Mallorca

74%

Draw or Mallorca

51%

Winning margin

Osasuna wins by 2+

25%

Mallorca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Osasuna 1+ goals

78%

Osasuna 2+ goals

45%

Osasuna 3+ goals

20%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

28%

Mallorca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Osasuna (draw refunded)

66%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 35 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna attack 1.32 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Osasuna defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Osasuna scores more

49%

level

26%

Mallorca scores more

26%

Osasuna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

David García

Osasuna · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

Kang-in Lee

47'

Aimar Oroz↳ Moi Gómez

58'

Chimy Ávila

64'

A. Ndiaye← Dani Rodríguez

68'

Rubén García← E. Ávila

68'

Moncayola← A. Ezzalzouli

72'

Abdón Prats← Copete

72'

B. Cufré← Jaume Costa

75'

Kike García← A. Budimir

78'

Lucas Torró

84'

Antonio Sánchez← I. Baba

84'

Ángel← Lee Kang-In

90+4'

Martin Valjent

90+4'

Clément Grenier

90'

Unai García← Diego Moreno

90'

D. Brašanac← Aimar Oroz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OsasunaMallorca

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots6

3Corners1

15Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots6

4On Target2

9Off Target2

2Blocked2

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

561Total Passes336

481Accurate Passes245

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides7