Osasuna 2–2 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Osasuna

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mallorca

I. Perez 68'

Adrian 21'

A. Budimir 65'

L. Agbenyenu 45+1'

7/19/2020

La Liga · Round 38Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Osasuna49%

×Draw26%

Mallorca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsasunaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.02

Osasuna

1.53

Mallorca

1.02

Osasuna creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 46 away

1.32

creates per match

0.93

1.11

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Osasuna

1.32

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Osasuna

1.11

Mallorca

1.74

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Osasuna+0.29scores more

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Osasuna or draw

75%

Osasuna or Mallorca

74%

Draw or Mallorca

51%

Winning margin

Osasuna wins by 2+

25%

Mallorca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Osasuna 1+ goals

78%

Osasuna 2+ goals

45%

Osasuna 3+ goals

20%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

27%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Osasuna (draw refunded)

66%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna attack 1.32 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Osasuna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Osasuna scores more

49%

level

26%

Mallorca scores more

25%

Osasuna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Roberto Torres

Osasuna · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

T. Lato

21'

Oier

21'

Adrian↳ R. Torres

45+1'

L. Agbenyenu

58'

Oier← I. Perez

59'

F. Merida← J. Moncayola

59'

P. Chavarria← S. Sevilla

59'

L. Junior← T. Kubo

65'

A. Budimir↳ X. Campos

66'

T. Lato← P. Estupinan

68'

I. Perez↳ A. Jose

74'

A. Febas← A. Trajkovski

80'

Adrian← A. Oroz

81'

E. Barja← J. Martinez Calvo

87'

I. Baba← R. Obrador

87'

L. Agbenyenu← A. Prats

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OsasunaMallorca

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots12

3Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target4

6Off Target7

1Blocked1

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

372Total Passes467

297Accurate Passes392

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1