Osasuna II 2–2 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Murcia

4/23/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Osasuna II42%

×Draw28%

Real Murcia30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.05

Osasuna II

1.30

Real Murcia

1.05

Osasuna II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

1.63

creates per match

1.18

0.93

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.63

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Osasuna II

0.93

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

70%

Osasuna II or Real Murcia

72%

Draw or Real Murcia

58%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

19%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

73%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

37%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

14%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

65%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

28%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

58%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osasuna II scores more

42%

level

28%

Real Murcia scores more

30%

Osasuna II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff