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Osasuna II vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
11/19/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Osasuna II40%
×Draw28%
Rayo Majadahonda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.27
Rayo Majadahonda
1.11

Osasuna II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 72 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
68%
Osasuna II or Rayo Majadahonda
72%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
60%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
18%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
72%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
36%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
14%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
55%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osasuna II scores more
40%
level
28%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
32%

Osasuna II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Rayo Majadahonda

Osasuna II and Rayo Majadahonda drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.