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Osasuna II vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
CANC
00:00
Leioa
Leioa
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Osasuna II60%
×Draw23%
Leioa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.73
Leioa
0.79

Osasuna II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Leioa
0.64

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Leioa
1.82

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
83%
Osasuna II or Leioa
77%
Draw or Leioa
40%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
34%
Leioa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
82%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
52%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
25%
Leioa 1+ goals
55%
Leioa 2+ goals
19%
Leioa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
78%
Leioa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Leioa attack 0.64 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Osasuna II scores more
60%
level
23%
Leioa scores more
17%

Osasuna II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Osasuna II host Leioa

March 29, 2020: Osasuna II take on Leioa in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Osasuna II host Leioa at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.