Osasuna II 3–2 Izarra: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Izarra

11/28/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Osasuna II57%

×Draw24%

Izarra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchIzarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.83

Osasuna II

1.65

Izarra

0.83

Osasuna II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

1.63

creates per match

0.74

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.63

Izarra

0.74

allows per match

Osasuna II

0.93

Izarra

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Izarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

81%

Osasuna II or Izarra

76%

Draw or Izarra

43%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

31%

Izarra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

81%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

49%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

23%

Izarra 1+ goals

56%

Izarra 2+ goals

20%

Izarra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

75%

Izarra (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Izarra attack 0.74 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Osasuna II scores more

57%

level

24%

Izarra scores more

19%

Osasuna II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff