Osasuna II 3–2 Gimnástica Segoviana: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Gimnástica Segoviana

Anai Morales 58'

Martín Pedroarena 39', 33'

Davo 76'

Javi Borrego 2'

10/12/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Osasuna II50%

×Draw24%

Gimnástica Segoviana26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Osasuna II

1.67

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.13

Osasuna II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

1.00

1.26

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.09

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.00

allows per match

Osasuna II

1.26

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

74%

Osasuna II or Gimnástica Segoviana

76%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

50%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

27%

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

81%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

50%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

23%

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

68%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

31%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

66%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osasuna II scores more

50%

level

24%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

26%

Osasuna II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

15'

22'

33'

39'

46'

Anai Morales← Dani Sancho

46'

Asier Bonel← Mauro Echegoyen

54'

Ignacio Tellechea← Gabriel Palmero

57'

Roberto Arroyo← Martín Pedroarena

58'

Anai Morales

60'

F. Ferreiroa

62'

Unai Santos← Jon García

64'

Juan Silva

67'

Rodrigo Sanz← Fernán Ferreiroa

67'

Davo← Diego Gómez

70'

I. Garriz

76'

Davo

82'

Abel Pascual← J. Silva

86'

Christian Mutilva← Xabi Huarte

90+4'

M. Berlanga

Osasuna

Gimnástica

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Pedroaren

Manager: Santi Castillejo

46'▲Anai Morales←▼Dani Sancho

46'▲Asier Bonel←▼Mauro Echegoyen

57'▲Roberto Arroyo←▼Martín Pedroarena

62'▲Unai Santos←▼Jon García

86'▲Christian Mutilva←▼Xabi Huarte

Osasuna II substitutes

MoralesBonelArroyoSantosMutilvaLumbrerasVailakakisArguibideAuríaLorenzoMoreno

Manager: Ramsés

54'▲Ignacio Tellechea←▼Gabriel Palmero

67'▲Rodrigo Sanz←▼Fernán Ferreiroa

67'▲Davo←▼Diego Gómez

82'▲Abel Pascual←▼J. Silva

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

TellecheaSanzDavoPascualOlivaChangyiHernandoMarcosIbañes