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Osasuna II vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
2/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Osasuna II55%
×Draw25%
Cornellà20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.65
Cornellà
0.89

Osasuna II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Cornellà
0.84

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Cornellà
1.66

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
80%
Osasuna II or Cornellà
75%
Draw or Cornellà
45%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
30%
Cornellà wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
81%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
49%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
23%
Cornellà 1+ goals
59%
Cornellà 2+ goals
22%
Cornellà 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
73%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Osasuna II scores more
55%
level
25%
Cornellà scores more
20%

Osasuna II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Cornellà

Osasuna II beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar in Tajonar.