Osasuna II 3–1 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

Anai Morales 90'

Noel López 82'

Xabi Huarte 67'

Martín Conde 90+4'

9/15/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Osasuna II34%

×Draw27%

Celta de Vigo II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Osasuna II

1.19

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 120 away

1.09

creates per match

1.33

1.26

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.09

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Osasuna II

1.26

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

61%

Osasuna II or Celta de Vigo II

73%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

66%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

14%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

70%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

33%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

12%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

72%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

37%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

47%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osasuna II scores more

34%

level

27%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

39%

Celta de Vigo II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

45'

A. Bonel

60'

Anai Morales← Asier Bonel

60'

Dani Sancho← Roberto Arroyo

61'

Iago Barreiros← E. Rodríguez

67'

Xabi Huarte

70'

Jon García← Pablo Moreno

70'

Noel López← Xabi Huarte

72'

G. Alonso

72'

Ángel Arcos← Iván Garriel

78'

82'

Noel López

84'

Andrés Antañón← Óscar Marcos

84'

Johan Guedes← David Dela

88'

Y. Lago

90+6'

90+1'

Íñigo Arguibide← Asier Osambela

90'

Anai Morales

90+4'

Martín Conde

Osasuna

Celta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Santi Castillejo

60'▲Anai Morales←▼Asier Bonel

60'▲Dani Sancho←▼Roberto Arroyo

70'▲Jon García←▼Pablo Moreno

70'▲Noel López←▼Xabi Huarte

90+1'▲Íñigo Arguibide←▼Asier Osambela

Osasuna II substitutes

MoralesSanchoGarcíaLópezArguibideLumbrerasMutilvaStamatakisAuríaLorenzo

Manager: Fredi

61'▲Iago Barreiros←▼E. Rodríguez

72'▲Ángel Arcos←▼Iván Garriel

84'▲Andrés Antañón←▼Óscar Marcos

84'▲Johan Guedes←▼David Dela

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

BarreirosArcosAntañónGuedesBurcioCondeMeixúsDíezGonzález

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Celta de Vigo II

Osasuna II beat Celta de Vigo II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2024.

Goals: Xabi Huarte (67'), Noel López (82'), Anai Morales (90'), Martín Conde (90+4').

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar in Tajonar.

Osasuna II vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Celta de Vigo II