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Osasuna II vs Cacereño — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cacereño
Cacereño
2/8/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Tajonar Facilities Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Osasuna II36%
×Draw27%
Cacereño37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.21
Cacereño
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Cacereño
1.21

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Cacereño
1.32

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Cacereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
63%
Osasuna II or Cacereño
73%
Draw or Cacereño
64%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
15%
Cacereño wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
70%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
34%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
12%
Cacereño 1+ goals
71%
Cacereño 2+ goals
35%
Cacereño 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
49%
Cacereño (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Cacereño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cacereño attack 1.21 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Osasuna II scores more
36%
level
27%
Cacereño scores more
37%

Cacereño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Osasuna II 2–2 Cacereño

Osasuna II and Cacereño drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Tajonar Facilities Stadium in Pamplona.