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Osasuna II vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
9/11/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Osasuna II43%
×Draw28%
Amorebieta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.30
Amorebieta
1.00

Osasuna II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Amorebieta
1.07

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Amorebieta
0.98

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
71%
Osasuna II or Amorebieta
72%
Draw or Amorebieta
57%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
20%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
73%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
37%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
14%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
63%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
26%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
60%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osasuna II scores more
43%
level
28%
Amorebieta scores more
29%

Osasuna II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Osasuna II 2–1 Amorebieta

Osasuna II beat Amorebieta 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar in Tajonar.