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Osasco Audax U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Osasco Audax U20
Osasco Audax U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Santos U20
Santos U20
Vinicius Lira 36'
Klaiton 32' (OG)
5/10/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2025%
×Draw24%
Santos U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasco Audax U20
1.10
Santos U20
1.65

Santos U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.41
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.65
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw
50%
Osasco Audax U20 or Santos U20
76%
Draw or Santos U20
75%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+
10%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals
67%
Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals
30%
Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals
10%
Santos U20 1+ goals
81%
Santos U20 2+ goals
49%
Santos U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more
25%
level
24%
Santos U20 scores more
50%

Santos U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
KlaitonOwn goal
36'
Vinicius Lira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Osasco Audax U20 0–2 Santos U20

Santos U20 beat Osasco Audax U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Klaiton (32' o.g.), Vinicius Lira (36').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.