Osasco Audax U20 4–1 Itapirense U20: Result & Stats

Osasco Audax U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Itapirense U20

Unknown 52'

Caio Henrique 45', 36', 3'

Unknown 90+2'

7/11/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2050%

×Draw22%

Itapirense U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasco Audax U20Expected goals in this matchItapirense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.39

Osasco Audax U20

1.94

Itapirense U20

1.39

Osasco Audax U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.12

1.65

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.41

Itapirense U20

1.12

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.65

Itapirense U20

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw

72%

Osasco Audax U20 or Itapirense U20

78%

Draw or Itapirense U20

50%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+

29%

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals

86%

Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals

58%

Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals

30%

Itapirense U20 1+ goals

75%

Itapirense U20 2+ goals

40%

Itapirense U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more

50%

level

22%

Itapirense U20 scores more

28%

Osasco Audax U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Osasco Audax U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Caio Henrique

36'

Caio Henrique

45'

Caio Henrique

52'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff