Osasco Audax U20 1–4 Guarani U20: Result & Stats

Osasco Audax U20

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Guarani U20

Edu 90+2'

Unknown 84', 43', 40', 31'

7/17/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2027%

×Draw25%

Guarani U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasco Audax U20Expected goals in this matchGuarani U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.55

Osasco Audax U20

1.11

Guarani U20

1.55

Guarani U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

1.41

creates per match

1.45

1.65

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.41

Guarani U20

1.45

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20

1.65

Guarani U20

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw

53%

Osasco Audax U20 or Guarani U20

75%

Draw or Guarani U20

73%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+

11%

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals

67%

Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals

30%

Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals

10%

Guarani U20 1+ goals

79%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

46%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more

27%

level

25%

Guarani U20 scores more

47%

Guarani U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

40'

43'

84'

90+2'

Edu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff