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Osasco Audax U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Osasco Audax U20
Osasco Audax U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Unknown 52', 11'
Unknown 66'
K. Chaudar 29'
I. Nunes 8'
Gabriel Abreu 6'
5/23/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osasco Audax U2036%
×Draw26%
EC São Bernardo U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasco Audax U20
1.35
EC São Bernardo U20
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.41
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Osasco Audax U20
1.65
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasco Audax U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Osasco Audax U20 or draw
62%
Osasco Audax U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
74%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
64%

Winning margin

Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+
16%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals
74%
Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals
39%
Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals
15%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
75%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
41%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)
48%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasco Audax U20 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.41 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Osasco Audax U20 scores more
36%
level
26%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
38%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Gabriel Abreu
8'
I. Nunes
11'
29'
K. Chaudar
52'
66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Osasco Audax U20 2–4 EC São Bernardo U20

EC São Bernardo U20 beat Osasco Audax U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 23, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel Abreu (6'), I. Nunes (8'), ? (11', 52', 66'), K. Chaudar (29').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.