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Os vs Ullern II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Os
Os
FT
4 – 1
Ullern II
Ullern II
4/30/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 4Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Os75%
×Draw13%
Ullern II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
3.58
Ullern II
1.44

Os creates 149% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Os
3.15
Ullern II
1.08

allows per match

Os
1.79
Ullern II
4.00

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Ullern II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Ullern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Os or draw
88%
Os or Ullern II
87%
Draw or Ullern II
25%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
57%
Ullern II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
97%
Os 2+ goals
86%
Os 3+ goals
67%
Ullern II 1+ goals
76%
Ullern II 2+ goals
42%
Ullern II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
86%
Ullern II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

Ullern II away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.15 + Ullern II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.58

Ullern II attack 1.08 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Os scores more
75%
level
13%
Ullern II scores more
12%

Os at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Os 4–1 Ullern II

Os beat Ullern II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.