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Os vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Os
Os
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Gneist
Gneist
M. A. Dahl 87'
H. V. Karlsen 37'
N. L. Dyngeland 42'
A. Kvamsdal 35'
A. E. Fleten 32'
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 1Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Os43%
×Draw19%
Gneist38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
2.58
Gneist
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Os
2.67
Gneist
2.50

allows per match

Os
2.33
Gneist
2.50

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Os or draw
62%
Os or Gneist
81%
Draw or Gneist
57%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
26%
Gneist wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
92%
Os 2+ goals
72%
Os 3+ goals
47%
Gneist 1+ goals
91%
Gneist 2+ goals
69%
Gneist 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
53%
Gneist (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Gneist away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 2.67 + Gneist defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Gneist attack 2.50 + Os defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Os scores more
43%
level
19%
Gneist scores more
38%

Os at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
A. E. Fleten
35'
A. Kvamsdal
37'
H. V. Karlsen
42'
N. L. Dyngeland
81'
N. L. Dyngeland
87'
M. A. Dahl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Os vs Gneist

Gneist beat Os 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: A. E. Fleten (32'), A. Kvamsdal (35'), H. V. Karlsen (37'), N. L. Dyngeland (42'), M. A. Dahl (87').

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.