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Os vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Os
Os
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
S. Walczak 90+4', 84'
H. V. Karlsen 87'
D. Kvalvagnes 10'
M. Nygard 90+2'
W. Khris 58'
K. Bjorndalen 14'
8/12/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Os48%
×Draw19%
Gjelleråsen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
2.45
Gjelleråsen
2.00

Os creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Os
3.15
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Os
1.79
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Os or draw
68%
Os or Gjelleråsen
81%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
52%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
29%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
91%
Os 2+ goals
70%
Os 3+ goals
44%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
86%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
59%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
60%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.15 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.45

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Os scores more
48%
level
19%
Gjelleråsen scores more
32%

Os at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Kvalvagnes
14'
K. Bjorndalen
58'
W. Khris
84'
S. Walczak
87'
H. V. Karlsen
90+2'
M. Nygard
90+4'
S. Walczak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Os 4–3 Gjelleråsen

Os beat Gjelleråsen 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: D. Kvalvagnes (10'), K. Bjorndalen (14'), W. Khris (58'), S. Walczak (84', 90+4'), H. V. Karlsen (87'), M. Nygard (90+2').

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.