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Os vs Fjøra — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Os
Os
FT
5 – 1
Fjøra
Fjøra
8/21/20213. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 3Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Os70%
×Draw14%
Fjøra16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
3.57
Fjøra
1.71

Os creates 109% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Os
3.40
Fjøra
1.42

allows per match

Os
2.00
Fjøra
3.74

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Fjøra+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Fjøra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Os or draw
84%
Os or Fjøra
86%
Draw or Fjøra
30%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
52%
Fjøra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
97%
Os 2+ goals
86%
Os 3+ goals
67%
Fjøra 1+ goals
82%
Fjøra 2+ goals
51%
Fjøra 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
82%
Fjøra (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Fjøra away — creates 1.42, concedes 3.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.40 + Fjøra defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 3.57

Fjøra attack 1.42 + Os defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Os scores more
70%
level
14%
Fjøra scores more
16%

Os at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Os 5–1 Fjøra

Os beat Fjøra 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.