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Os vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Os
Os
FT
4 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Førde
Førde
K. Brakstad 89', 67', 60'
L. Olsen 38'
S. Aamelfot 90', 17'
V. Savland 57'
M. Helgheim 49'
M. Sivertsen 13' (OG)
V. Lorgen 3'
10/4/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Os44%
×Draw20%
Førde37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
2.35
Førde
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Os
3.40
Førde
2.31

allows per match

Os
2.00
Førde
1.31

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Os or draw
63%
Os or Førde
80%
Draw or Førde
56%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
25%
Førde wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
90%
Os 2+ goals
68%
Os 3+ goals
41%
Førde 1+ goals
88%
Førde 2+ goals
63%
Førde 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
54%
Førde (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Førde away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.40 + Førde defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.35

Førde attack 2.31 + Os defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Os scores more
44%
level
20%
Førde scores more
37%

Os at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
V. Lorgen
13'
M. SivertsenOwn goal
17'
S. Aamelfot
38'
L. Olsen
49'
M. Helgheim
57'
V. Savland
60'
K. Brakstad
67'
K. Brakstad
89'
K. Brakstad
90'
S. Aamelfot

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Os 4–6 Førde

Førde beat Os 6-4 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: V. Lorgen (3'), M. Sivertsen (13' o.g.), S. Aamelfot (17', 90'), L. Olsen (38'), M. Helgheim (49'), V. Savland (57'), K. Brakstad (60', 67', 89').

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.