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Os Limianos vs Pevidem — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Os Limianos
Os Limianos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pevidem
Pevidem
5/5/2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 3Estádio do Cruzeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Os Limianos49%
×Draw24%
Pevidem27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os Limianos
1.67
Pevidem
1.17

Os Limianos creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Os Limianos
1.33
Pevidem
0.67

allows per match

Os Limianos
1.67
Pevidem
2.00

finishing

Os Limianos+0.00on par
Pevidem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os Limianos ↓

Pevidem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Os Limianos or draw
73%
Os Limianos or Pevidem
76%
Draw or Pevidem
51%

Winning margin

Os Limianos wins by 2+
26%
Pevidem wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Os Limianos 1+ goals
81%
Os Limianos 2+ goals
50%
Os Limianos 3+ goals
23%
Pevidem 1+ goals
69%
Pevidem 2+ goals
33%
Pevidem 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Os Limianos (draw refunded)
65%
Pevidem (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os Limianos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Pevidem away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os Limianos attack 1.33 + Pevidem defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pevidem attack 0.67 + Os Limianos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Os Limianos scores more
49%
level
24%
Pevidem scores more
27%

Os Limianos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Os Limianos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Os Limianos vs Pevidem

Os Limianos beat Pevidem 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Cruzeiro in Ponte de Lima.