Os Limianos 3–2 Montalegre: Result & Stats

Os Limianos

3 – 2

Montalegre

9/9/2021

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Cruzeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Os Limianos26%

×Draw22%

Montalegre51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Os LimianosExpected goals in this matchMontalegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.91

Os Limianos

1.31

Montalegre

1.91

Montalegre creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

2.14

1.67

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Os Limianos

1.33

Montalegre

2.14

allows per match

Os Limianos

1.67

Montalegre

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Os Limianos+0.00on par

Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os Limianos ↓

Montalegre →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Os Limianos or draw

49%

Os Limianos or Montalegre

78%

Draw or Montalegre

74%

Winning margin

Os Limianos wins by 2+

11%

Montalegre wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Os Limianos 1+ goals

73%

Os Limianos 2+ goals

38%

Os Limianos 3+ goals

14%

Montalegre 1+ goals

85%

Montalegre 2+ goals

57%

Montalegre 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Os Limianos (draw refunded)

34%

Montalegre (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Os Limianos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Montalegre away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Os Limianos attack 1.33 + Montalegre defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Montalegre attack 2.14 + Os Limianos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Os Limianos scores more

26%

level

22%

Montalegre scores more

51%

Montalegre at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montalegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff